Raiders at Jets: Matchup Edges, Statistical Evidence and Market Context
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets·
NFL Week 8·
Kickoff Sun, Nov 1, 2026, 1:00 PM ET
Updated Oct 28, 2026, with Week 8 Reasons·
By Inside Edge Editorial·
Data through Week 7 of the 2026 season
32 of 54 Inside Edge Reasons favor New York, led by the NFL’s most successful play-action passing game and a run game that has broken long runs against a Las Vegas defense ranked last in the league in several run measures since Week 4. Las Vegas’s counters are specific and real: its quarterbacks against a light rush, its first-half scoring and a pass rush that ranks T-2nd-best. The market has New York as a 1-point home favorite. Both sides are shown below with sample, ranking and source context.
Inside Edge’s Week 8 view: The Jets enter Sunday with the stronger statistical profile: 32 of the game’s 54 Reasons favor New York, most built on a play-action passing game and a rushing attack facing a Las Vegas defense that ranks at or near the bottom of the league against both since Week 4. The Raiders’ clearest counterarguments are a passing game that has been nearly perfect against a light rush, a fast-starting offense that scores on 55% of its first-half drives, and a pass rush that pressures quarterbacks on 33% of dropbacks. The current line has New York −1 with a total of 45.5, shown later in this report as external market context, not an Inside Edge forecast.
| Matchup | Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets |
| Competition | NFL, Week 8 |
| Kickoff | Sun, Nov 1, 2026, 1:00 PM ET |
| Line | New York −1 · Total 45.5 |
| Analysis status | Pregame; subject to change |
| Data through | Week 7, 2026 NFL regular season |
What Stood Out Last Week
Week 7
- Ashton Jeanty caught 8 passes on 8 targets, the most receptions and targets among NFL running backs in Week 7, including 5 catches in the first half.
- Tre Tucker was targeted 12 times, tied for most among NFL wide receivers, and gained 65 yards after the catch, 4th-most.
- The defense didn’t allow a 20+ yard reception, tied for fewest in the NFL, and gave up just 8.5 yards per completion, T-2nd-best.
- The offense stalled on 3rd down: Las Vegas converted 21% of its 3rd downs, worst in the NFL, and the defense allowed successful plays on 65% of snaps, also worst.
- Geno Smith completed 23 of 30 passes (76.7%), 4th-best among qualified QBs, for 287 yards, 9th-most in the NFL, with 4 completions of 20+ yards.
- The Jets were successful on 73% of rushes with motion, best in the NFL, and on 55% of all rush attempts, T-3rd-best.
- The run defense held running backs to 3.5 yards per touch (111 yards on 32 touches), best in the NFL.
- The pass defense was the soft spot: New York allowed 4 touchdowns, T-3rd-most, and opponents were successful on 57% of pass attempts, T-4th-worst.
Spot the Angle
Real Remarkable™ insights on Raiders at Jets. Pick an answer to reveal the betting spin.
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Player Prop
Question 1 of 5
Geno Smith’s passing-yards line this week is 221.5. In how many of his 7 games this season has he gone over that number?
He’s averaging 231.9 passing yards per game this season.
The betting spin
Answer: 5 of 7 (71%). He’s averaging 240.3 passing yards over his last 3 games, and the Raiders have allowed more than 221.5 in 4 of their last 5. Inside Edge’s insight leans Over at 57%.
See the prop angles ↓ -
Key Insight
Question 2 of 5
When the Jets rush lightly (fewer pass rushers, more defenders in coverage), what passer rating have they allowed this season?
It ranks 2nd-worst in the NFL.
The betting spin
Answer: 152.1, 2nd-worst in the NFL. Raiders quarterbacks have a 156.3 rating against a light rush, best in the league (158.3 is the maximum), which makes this Las Vegas’s clearest edge on the board.
See the edge ↓ -
Favorable Matchup
Question 3 of 5
Which receiver had 115 receiving yards in Week 7, the 7th-most of any NFL wide receiver?
He also gained 64 yards after the catch, 5th-most among WRs that week.
The betting spin
Answer: Omar Cooper. Jets wide receivers averaged 20.1 yards per catch in Week 7, 2nd-best in the NFL, and since Week 4 the Raiders have allowed 8.0 yards per dropback, 2nd-worst.
See the Jets’ passing edge ↓ -
Hot Streak
Question 4 of 5
Which tight end has caught 18 consecutive passes thrown his way, the longest active streak in the NFL?
His team’s tight ends have 70 receptions this season, 2nd-most in the NFL.
The betting spin
Answer: Ian Thomas. Las Vegas throws to its tight ends on 35% of plays, the highest rate in the NFL, and its TEs have 8 catches of 20+ yards, most in the league. The counterweight: the Jets have allowed just 1 touchdown catch to tight ends all season, T-3rd-fewest.
See the Raiders’ edges ↓ -
Matchup Watch
Question 5 of 5
Which tight end has been targeted 10.4 times per game this season, 2nd-highest among 33 qualified NFL tight ends?
He has 455 receiving yards this season, 2nd-most among NFL tight ends.
The betting spin
Answer: Brock Bowers. That’s 52 targets in the 5 games he’s played, a small sample. He runs into a Jets defense that has allowed 0.1 touchdowns per game to tight ends, T-3rd-best in the NFL, so the volume is real but the end-zone matchup is tough.
See the Raiders’ edges ↓
Key Findings
At a glance| Topic | Las Vegas | New York | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Play-action passing | 63% success allowed, T-2nd-worst | 68% success rate, best | New York |
| 10+ yard runs by RBs (since Week 4) | 17% of carries allowed, worst | 17% of carries, best | New York |
| Passing vs. a heavy rush | 67% success allowed, T-2nd-worst | 74% success rate, best | New York |
| Passing vs. a light rush | 156.3 rating, best | 152.1 allowed, 2nd-worst | Las Vegas |
| First-half scoring drives | 55% scored, T-2nd-best | 47% allowed, 6th-worst | Las Vegas |
| Pass rush vs. protection | Pressure on 33% of dropbacks, T-2nd-best | Pressure allowed on 29% of dropbacks, T-7th-worst | Las Vegas |
Rows use 2026 regular-season data through Week 7 unless marked "since Week 4" (the last 4 weeks, a recent-form window). Rankings are among all 32 NFL teams. Of the 54 Inside Edge Reasons generated for this game, 32 favor New York and 22 favor Las Vegas.
Where New York Has the Edge
3 verified pairsThe NFL’s most successful play-action offense meets one of its leakiest play-action defenses
NYJThe Jets have been successful on 68% of their play-action pass attempts this season.
LVThe Raiders have allowed a 63% success rate on play-action pass attempts this season.
New York: best in the NFL · Las Vegas: T-2nd-worst.
Why it matters: Geno Smith has completed 81% of his play-action passes (30 of 37), best of 34 qualified quarterbacks. The recent numbers point the same way: since Week 4, Jets quarterbacks have a 128.3 passer rating on play action (4th-best) against a Raiders defense allowing 100.1 (8th-worst), and Las Vegas has pressured quarterbacks on only 22% of play-action dropbacks over that span (10th-worst).
The Jets have been successful on 68% of play-action pass attempts in 2026, best in the NFL, while the Raiders have allowed a 63% success rate on play-action passes, tied for 2nd-worst.
Data note
Success rate and play-action charting by FTN Data. 2026 regular season through Week 7; the passer-rating and pressure figures cover the previous 4 weeks (since Week 4). Geno Smith’s completion figure comes from a Remarkable™ player note. Source: Inside Edge Week 8 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN data).
No backfield has broken more 10-yard runs lately, and no defense has allowed more
NYJJets running backs have gained 10 or more yards on 17% of their 83 carries since Week 4.
LVThe Raiders have allowed 10+ yard runs on 17% of running back carries since Week 4.
New York: best in the NFL · Las Vegas: worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is the largest rank gap in the matchup, and it holds up over the full season: Jets running backs have gone for 10+ yards on 12.4% of 153 carries in 2026 (4th-best), and the Raiders have allowed 13.6% (2nd-worst). Since Week 4, Las Vegas has also allowed 5.9 yards per carry, worst in the NFL, and a 51% rushing success rate, 2nd-worst.
Since Week 4, Jets running backs have gained 10+ yards on 17% of carries, best in the NFL, and the Raiders have allowed 10+ yard runs on 17% of RB carries, worst in the NFL.
Data note
The headline pair uses the previous 4 weeks (since Week 4), a recent-form window, because it has the largest rank gap of any Reason for this game. The full-season 2026 figures come from a Remarkable™ matchup note. Source: Inside Edge Week 8 Reasons (Remarkable™, Sportradar data).
When opponents send extra rushers, the Jets have made them pay
NYJThe Jets have been successful on 74% of pass attempts against a heavy rush this season.
LVThe Raiders have allowed a 67% success rate on pass attempts when bringing a heavy rush this season.
New York: best in the NFL · Las Vegas: T-2nd-worst.
Why it matters: A heavy rush sends more pass rushers than usual and leaves fewer defenders in coverage. Geno Smith has thrown for first downs on 53% of his attempts against a heavy rush, 6th-best of 29 qualified quarterbacks. It isn’t one-sided: Smith has also been sacked 10 times on 57 attempts against the blitz, tied for 5th-worst of 34.
The Jets have been successful on 74% of pass attempts against a heavy rush in 2026, best in the NFL, while the Raiders have allowed a 67% success rate when bringing a heavy rush, tied for 2nd-worst.
Data note
"Heavy rush" is a pass rush with more rushers than usual, as charted by FTN Data. 2026 regular season through Week 7. A heavy rush and a blitz are related but not identical measures; the blitz sack figure comes from a Remarkable™ player note. Source: Inside Edge Week 8 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN data).
Where Las Vegas Has the Edge
3 verified pairsAgainst a light rush, Raiders quarterbacks have been nearly perfect
LVRaiders quarterbacks have a 156.3 passer rating against a light rush this season.
NYJThe Jets have allowed a 152.1 passer rating when rushing light this season.
Las Vegas: best in the NFL · New York: 2nd-worst. 158.3 is the highest passer rating possible.
Why it matters: This is Las Vegas’s largest rank gap in the matchup. A light rush sends fewer pass rushers to add help in coverage, and the Jets haven’t made that trade work. Kirk Cousins has also thrown 11 touchdown passes on plays with motion this season, most among NFL quarterbacks.
Raiders quarterbacks have a 156.3 passer rating against a light rush in 2026, best in the NFL, while the Jets have allowed a 152.1 rating when rushing light, 2nd-worst.
Data note
"Light rush" is a pass rush with fewer rushers than usual, as charted by FTN Data. 2026 regular season through Week 7. The Reasons don’t give the number of light-rush snaps, which is usually a small share of dropbacks. Source: Inside Edge Week 8 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN data).
The Raiders start fast, and the Jets’ first-half defense has been vulnerable
LVThe Raiders have scored on 55% of their first-half drives this season.
NYJThe Jets have allowed scores on 47% of opponents’ first-half drives this season.
Las Vegas: T-2nd-best in the NFL · New York: 6th-worst.
Why it matters: Since Week 4, the Raiders have scored 6.0 points per game in the first quarter (T-6th-best), and the Jets have allowed 7.8 (T-2nd-worst). The Jets’ offense has been slow early, averaging 6.3 first-half points per game (3rd-worst), but it has averaged 6.8 yards per play after halftime, tied for best in the NFL. The Raiders’ defense has allowed successful plays on 54% of first-half snaps, worst in the league, so the early edge cuts both ways.
The Raiders have scored on 55% of first-half drives in 2026, tied for 2nd-best in the NFL, and the Jets have allowed scores on 47% of first-half drives, 6th-worst.
Data note
2026 regular season through Week 7; the first-quarter points cover the previous 4 weeks (since Week 4). The Jets’ first- and second-half offense figures and the Raiders’ first-half defense figure come from Remarkable™ team notes. Source: Inside Edge Week 8 Reasons (Remarkable™, Sportradar data).
Las Vegas brings one of the league’s best pass rushes
LVThe Raiders have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 33% of dropbacks this season.
NYJThe Jets have allowed pressure on 29% of dropbacks this season.
Las Vegas: T-2nd-best in the NFL · New York: T-7th-worst.
Why it matters: When pressured, the Jets have been successful on just 24% of pass attempts, tied for 8th-worst. The other half of the story favors New York, though: Jets quarterbacks have a 76.1 passer rating under pressure, 3rd-best in the NFL, against a Raiders defense that has allowed a 73.9 rating to pressured quarterbacks, 8th-worst. The rush has to finish plays.
The Raiders have pressured quarterbacks on 33% of dropbacks in 2026, tied for 2nd-best in the NFL, while the Jets have allowed pressure on 29% of dropbacks, tied for 7th-worst.
Data note
Pressure includes sacks, hits and hurries, per dropback. 2026 regular season through Week 7. Success rate under pressure and passer rating under pressure measure related but different things, which is why they point in different directions here. Source: Inside Edge Week 8 Reasons (Remarkable™, Sportradar data).
Blazing Performers
1 per teamWho's hottest heading into Sunday, per Remarkable™. Read the clue, guess, then tap to reveal.
Las VegasThis quarterback has thrown at least one touchdown pass in each of his last 11 games.
New YorkThis running back has 100+ yards from scrimmage in each of his last 3 games, the longest active streak in the NFL.
Blazing Performers presented by LineTerminal.
Market Context
External, secondaryThe current line has New York as a 1-point home favorite with a game total of 45.5. Inside Edge game data doesn’t include line history, so this page doesn’t describe any line movement. These are displayed as external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast.
The Reasons count, 32 to 22 in New York’s favor, points the same direction as the price, but Las Vegas’s edges against a light rush and in first-half scoring are statistical factors on the other side. For context only: games involving the Jets have gone under the total in 2 of 3 home games this season, a small sample. Inside Edge does not state that any line is mispriced.
Not financial or betting advice. Inside Edge does not set, accept or influence sportsbook prices. Wager only through licensed, regulated platforms in your jurisdiction. Line source: Inside Edge game data, Oct 28, 2026.
Player Prop Angles
1 insight| Player | Market | Insight lean | Rating | Key trend | Save |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | Passing yards, 221.5 | Over · 57% | ★★★★ | Over in 5 of 7 games this season |
Line source: Remarkable™ consensus line. Confidence is the Inside Edge confidence in the Over (Under = 100 minus Over). Sample: 2026 regular season and last 3/5 games played.
Line source: Remarkable™ consensus line. The prop data lists the Jets at 202.9 passing yards allowed per game this season; a Remarkable™ team note lists 187.7, likely a net figure after sacks.
Methodology
How this is calculatedHow does Inside Edge decide which team "has the edge" on a given stat?
Each comparison in this report pairs one team's strength with the opponent's matching weakness, ranked among all 32 teams (or among qualified players where a player is named). Edges are ordered by the size of the rank gap and by how directly the two stats measure the same thing. Inside Edge does not publish a weighted "Strong Edge / Edge / Lean" score; that scoring system is in development.
Why does this page mostly use 2026 season data?
Current-season splits reflect this year's rosters and schemes. Where a recent-form window (the previous 4 weeks, since Week 4) has the stronger signal, the data note says so.
How are prop insights and confidence calculated?
Each prop insight compares the posted line to the player's recent and season results and to what the opposing defense has allowed. The confidence figure is Inside Edge's confidence in the Over on a 0 to 100 scale; the star rating reflects how far that figure sits from 50. Every insight is graded against the final box score on a weekly results page.
What's the data source and refresh schedule?
Team, player and matchup statistics come from Remarkable™, Inside Edge's proprietary sports data engine, using Sportradar and FTN Data feeds. The spread and total come from the consensus line in Inside Edge game data. Game pages refresh on a weekly cadence during the season.
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Frequently Asked Questions
5 questionsWhich team has the stronger statistical matchup profile?
New York holds the broader statistical edge: 32 of the game’s 54 Inside Edge Reasons favor the Jets, led by the NFL’s most successful play-action passing game and a run game that has broken 10+ yard runs at the league’s best rate since Week 4. Las Vegas’s clearest counterweights are its passing efficiency against a light rush, its first-half scoring and its pass rush. This reflects statistical comparison, not a forecast of the outcome.
What is the market price for Raiders at Jets?
The current line has New York −1 with a total of 45.5 (Inside Edge game data, Oct 28, 2026). Prices may change before kickoff.
What is Las Vegas’s strongest counterargument?
Raiders quarterbacks have a 156.3 passer rating against a light rush, best in the NFL, and the Jets have allowed 152.1 when rushing light, 2nd-worst. The Raiders also pressure quarterbacks on 33% of dropbacks, tied for 2nd-best, against a Jets line that has allowed pressure on 29%, tied for 7th-worst.
Who are the Blazing Performers for this game?
Kirk Cousins has thrown at least one touchdown pass in each of his last 11 games. Braelon Allen has 100+ yards from scrimmage in each of his last 3 games, the longest active streak in the NFL.
Are these betting picks or financial advice?
No. This page presents descriptive, sourced statistical analysis. It is not financial advice and does not guarantee any outcome. Market pricing is shown for context only.