Bears at Seahawks: Matchup Edges, Statistical Evidence and Market Context
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks·
NFL Week 8, Monday Night Football·
Kickoff Mon, Nov 2, 2026, 8:15 PM ET
Updated Oct 28, 2026, with Week 8 Reasons·
By Inside Edge Editorial·
Data through Week 7 of the 2026 season
Of the 44 Inside Edge Reasons generated for this game, 25 favor Seattle, led by its passing game against a Chicago defense that ranks last in the NFL on first down, and by a Seattle defense that ranks 2nd-best on 3rd and short. It’s a closer split than most: 19 Reasons favor Chicago, whose pass rush and early-game defense are real counters. The market has Seattle as a 3-point home favorite. Both sides are shown below with sample, ranking and source context.
Inside Edge’s Week 8 view: Seattle enters Monday night with the stronger statistical profile: 25 of the game’s 44 Reasons favor the Seahawks. The biggest gaps sit in Seattle’s passing game, which faces a Chicago defense that has allowed 10.6 yards per dropback on first down, worst in the NFL, and in a Seattle defense that has allowed a 35% conversion rate on 3rd and short, 2nd-best. Chicago’s clearest counterarguments are a pass rush that pressures quarterbacks on 31% of dropbacks (4th-best) and a defense that has allowed just 2.4 first-quarter points per game. The line has Seattle -3 with a total of 46.5, shown later in this report as external market context, not an Inside Edge forecast.
| Matchup | Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks |
| Competition | NFL, Week 8, Monday Night Football |
| Kickoff | Mon, Nov 2, 2026, 8:15 PM ET |
| Line | Seattle -3 · Total 46.5 |
| Analysis status | Pregame; subject to change |
| Data through | Week 7, 2026 NFL regular season |
What Stood Out Last Week
Week 7
- Chicago had 8 catches of 20+ yards, most in the NFL, and its wide receivers averaged 24.9 yards per catch (199 yards on 8), best in the league.
- Luther Burden gained 92 yards after the catch, 2nd-most among NFL wide receivers.
- The offense scored on 60% of its drives (6 of 10), tied for 2nd-best in the NFL.
- The pass defense was the soft spot: Chicago allowed 310 passing yards, most in the NFL, and opponents caught 24 of 30 passes (80%), the worst rate allowed.
- Seattle’s defense allowed scores on 1 of 8 drives (12%), best in the NFL, and didn’t allow a touchdown.
- The defense allowed successful plays on just 32% of snaps, best in the league, and gave up only 50 rushing yards, 3rd-fewest.
- Sam Darnold threw for a first down on 50% of his attempts, best of 28 qualified QBs, and Emanuel Wilson ran for 100 yards.
- The running game didn’t break tackles: Seattle’s running backs averaged 1.0 yard after contact per carry (34 carries), 4th-worst in the NFL.
Spot the Angle
Real Remarkable™ insights on Bears at Seahawks. Pick an answer to reveal the betting spin.
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Player Prop
Question 1 of 5
Which receiver has a receptions line of 4.5 this week and is averaging 5.3 catches per game over his last 3 games?
He’s been targeted 6 or more times in 6 of 7 games this season.
The betting spin
Answer: Luther Burden. He’s averaging 5.0 catches per game this season and 5.4 over his last 5. Inside Edge’s insight leans Over at 56%.
See the prop angles ↓ -
Key Insight
Question 2 of 5
On first down, how many yards per dropback has Chicago’s defense allowed this season?
It ranks worst in the NFL.
The betting spin
Answer: 10.6, worst in the NFL. Seattle has thrown for 8.4 yards per attempt on first down, tied for 5th-best, which makes this one of the widest current-season gaps on the board.
See the edge ↓ -
Hot Streak
Question 3 of 5
Which receiver has a receiving yards line of 99.5 this week and has topped it in each of his last 3 games?
He’s caught 5 or more passes in each of his last 7 games.
The betting spin
Answer: Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He’s cleared 99.5 in 6 of 7 games this season, but Chicago has allowed more than 99.5 to an opposing wide receiver in just 2 of 7. The two trends nearly cancel out: Inside Edge’s insight is Under · 51%, close to even.
See the prop angles ↓ -
Favorable Matchup
Question 4 of 5
Chicago has converted 52% of its 3rd-and-short chances this season, tied for 3rd-worst in the NFL. What conversion rate has Seattle’s defense allowed on 3rd and short?
It ranks 2nd-best in the NFL.
The betting spin
Answer: 35%, 2nd-best. It’s tied for Seattle’s largest rank gap in this game. The same down cuts the other way too: Chicago’s defense has allowed 44% on 3rd and short (4th-best), and Seattle has converted 53% (5th-worst).
See the edge ↓ -
Player Prop
Question 5 of 5
Which receiver has a receptions line of 3.5 this week and has been targeted 5 or more times in each of his last 5 games?
He’s gone over his receptions line in 5 of 6 games this season.
The betting spin
Answer: Rome Odunze. He’s averaging 3.8 catches per game over his last 5, and Inside Edge’s insight leans Over at 55%.
See the prop angles ↓
Key Findings
At a glance| Topic | Chicago | Seattle | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st-down passing | 10.6 yards per dropback allowed, worst | 8.4 YPA, T-5th-best | Seattle |
| Chicago offense on 3rd and short | 52% converted, T-3rd-worst | 35% allowed, 2nd-best | Seattle |
| Turnovers (since Week 4) | 10 giveaways, 2nd-most | 6 takeaways, T-6th-most | Seattle |
| Pass rush vs. protection | Pressure on 31% of dropbacks, 4th-best | Pressure allowed on 31% of dropbacks, 5th-worst | Chicago |
| Seattle offense on 3rd and short | 44% allowed, 4th-best | 53% converted, 5th-worst | Chicago |
| 1st-quarter scoring | 2.4 points per game allowed, T-3rd-best | 3.4 points per game, T-6th-worst | Chicago |
Rows use 2026 regular-season data through Week 7 unless marked "since Week 4" (the previous 4 weeks). Rankings are among all 32 NFL teams. Of the 44 Inside Edge Reasons generated for this game, 25 favor Seattle and 19 favor Chicago.
Where Seattle Has the Edge
3 verified pairsChicago has been the NFL’s worst defense against first-down passing
SEAThe Seahawks have thrown for 8.4 yards per attempt on first down this season.
CHIThe Bears have allowed 10.6 yards per dropback on first down this season.
Seattle: T-5th-best in the NFL · Chicago: worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is tied for the largest rank gap in the matchup, and it isn’t limited to first down. On early downs (1st and 2nd), Seattle has thrown for 7.8 yards per attempt (8th-best) against a Chicago defense allowing 9.3 (worst), and across all downs it’s 7.6 for Seattle (9th-best) against 8.1 allowed by Chicago (worst).
Chicago has allowed 10.6 yards per dropback on first down in 2026, worst in the NFL, while Seattle has thrown for 8.4 yards per attempt on first down, tied for 5th-best.
Data note
2026 regular season through Week 7. Other Seattle passing Reasons for this game point the same way: passes to the right side of the field (8.0 yards per attempt, 4th-best, against 8.9 allowed by Chicago, 2nd-worst) and 20+ yard completions (10% of attempts, T-7th-best, against 11% allowed by Chicago, T-2nd-worst). Source: Inside Edge Week 8 Reasons (Remarkable™, Sportradar data).
Seattle’s short-yardage defense meets a Chicago offense that has struggled there
SEAThe Seahawks’ defense has allowed a 35% conversion rate on 3rd and short this season.
CHIThe Bears have converted 52% of their 3rd-and-short chances this season.
Seattle: 2nd-best in the NFL · Chicago: T-3rd-worst.
Why it matters: Seattle’s defense has been hard to finish drives against. It hasn’t allowed a touchdown in its last 22 drives, the longest active streak in the NFL, and since Week 4 it has allowed 7.8 second-half points per game (T-4th-best) while Chicago has scored 7.5 after halftime (3rd-worst).
Seattle’s defense has allowed a 35% conversion rate on 3rd and short in 2026, 2nd-best in the NFL, while Chicago has converted 52%, tied for 3rd-worst.
Data note
3rd and short is 3rd down with 1 to 3 yards to go. 2026 regular season through Week 7. The touchdown streak comes from Remarkable™ streak notes; the second-half figures cover the previous 4 weeks (since Week 4). Source: Inside Edge Week 8 Reasons (Remarkable™, Sportradar data).
Chicago has been giving the ball away, and Seattle has been taking it
SEAThe Seahawks have forced 6 turnovers since Week 4.
CHIThe Bears have turned the ball over 10 times since Week 4.
Seattle: T-6th-most in the NFL · Chicago: 2nd-most.
Why it matters: This is a recent-form edge rather than a season-long one, so treat it with more caution than the two above. It lines up with how Seattle’s pass defense has played lately: since Week 4, Seattle has allowed 0.8 passing touchdowns per game (T-2nd-best), and Chicago has thrown for 0.8 per game (T-7th-worst).
Chicago has turned the ball over 10 times since Week 4, 2nd-most in the NFL, while Seattle has forced 6 turnovers over that span, tied for 6th-most.
Data note
Takeaways and giveaways include interceptions and lost fumbles. "Since Week 4" is the previous 4 weeks, a smaller sample than the full season; no 2026 full-season turnover Reason was generated for this game. Source: Inside Edge Week 8 Reasons (Remarkable™, Sportradar data).
Where Chicago Has the Edge
3 verified pairsChicago’s pass rush faces a Seattle line that has allowed steady pressure
CHIThe Bears have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 31% of dropbacks this season.
SEAThe Seahawks have allowed pressure on 31% of dropbacks this season.
Chicago: 4th-best in the NFL · Seattle: 5th-worst.
Why it matters: This is Chicago’s strongest current-season counter. The Bears have at least one sack in each of their last 14 games, and since Week 4 they have 12 sacks (T-3rd-most) while Seattle’s quarterbacks have been sacked 13 times (T-4th-most). One caution: Seattle allowed pressure on just 7% of pass attempts in Week 7, 2nd-best in the league.
Chicago’s best counter is its pass rush: the Bears have pressured quarterbacks on 31% of dropbacks in 2026, 4th-best in the NFL, while Seattle has allowed pressure on 31% of dropbacks, 5th-worst.
Data note
Pressure includes sacks, hits and hurries, per dropback. 2026 regular season through Week 7. The sack streak comes from Remarkable™ streak notes; the sack totals cover the previous 4 weeks (since Week 4), and the Week 7 pressure rate comes from Remarkable™ last-week notes. Source: Inside Edge Week 8 Reasons (Remarkable™, Sportradar data).
Chicago’s defense wins its share of short-yardage downs, too
CHIThe Bears’ defense has allowed a 44% conversion rate on 3rd and short this season.
SEAThe Seahawks have converted 53% of their 3rd-and-short chances this season.
Chicago: 4th-best in the NFL · Seattle: 5th-worst.
Why it matters: Both defenses rank in the top 4 on 3rd and short, and both offenses rank in the bottom 5, so short-yardage downs could be a grind for each side. Chicago’s run defense has been stout on first down lately as well: since Week 4 it has allowed 2.9 yards per carry on first down (2nd-best), and Seattle has averaged 3.0 (T-3rd-worst).
Chicago’s defense has allowed a 44% conversion rate on 3rd and short in 2026, 4th-best in the NFL, while Seattle has converted 53%, 5th-worst.
Data note
3rd and short is 3rd down with 1 to 3 yards to go. 2026 regular season through Week 7; the first-down rushing figures cover the previous 4 weeks (since Week 4). Source: Inside Edge Week 8 Reasons (Remarkable™, Sportradar data).
Chicago’s defense has started games fast
CHIThe Bears have allowed 2.4 points per game in the 1st quarter this season.
SEAThe Seahawks have scored 3.4 points per game in the 1st quarter this season.
Chicago: T-3rd-best in the NFL · Seattle: T-6th-worst.
Why it matters: The slow-start pattern extends through halftime. Since Week 4, Chicago’s defense has allowed scores on 29% of opponent first-half drives (T-6th-best), and Seattle has scored on 32% of its first-half drives (7th-worst). Seattle’s own defense has been strongest after halftime, so the early quarters are where Chicago’s numbers look best.
Chicago has allowed 2.4 first-quarter points per game in 2026, tied for 3rd-best in the NFL, while Seattle has scored 3.4 first-quarter points per game, tied for 6th-worst.
Data note
2026 regular season through Week 7; the first-half drive figures cover the previous 4 weeks (since Week 4). Source: Inside Edge Week 8 Reasons (Remarkable™, Sportradar data).
Blazing Performers
1 per teamWho’s hottest heading into Monday night, per Remarkable™. Read the clue, guess, then tap to reveal.
ChicagoThis running back has rushed for a touchdown in each of his last 3 games.
SeattleThis receiver has caught 5 or more passes in each of his last 7 games and topped 99.5 receiving yards in each of his last 3.
Blazing Performers presented by LineTerminal.
Market Context
External, secondaryThe line has Seattle as a 3-point home favorite with a game total of 46.5. Earlier-week prices weren’t available for this report, so line movement isn’t shown. These are displayed as external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast.
The Reasons count points the same direction as the price, 25 to 19 in Seattle’s favor, though the split is closer than the largest single gaps suggest. Chicago’s pass rush and early-game defense are the statistical factors on the other side; Inside Edge does not state that any line is mispriced.
Not financial or betting advice. Inside Edge does not set, accept or influence sportsbook prices. Wager only through licensed, regulated platforms in your jurisdiction. Line source: Inside Edge game data, Oct 28, 2026.
Player Prop Angles
7 insights| Player | Market | Insight lean | Rating | Key trend | Save |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | Completions, 19.5 | Over · 65% | ★★★★★ | Over in 4 of his last 5 games | |
| Caleb Williams | Rushing yards, 21.5 | Under · 63% | ★★★★★ | Seahawks allow 7.3 per game to QBs, last 3 | |
| Caleb Williams | Passing yards, 227.5 | Under · 61% | ★★★★★ | Seahawks allowed Over in 0 of 7 games | |
| Luther Burden | Receptions, 4.5 | Over · 56% | ★★★★ | 6+ targets in 6 of 7 games this season | |
| Sam Darnold | Rushing yards, 4.5 | Over · 56% | ★★★★ | Over in each of his last 5 games | |
| Rome Odunze | Receptions, 3.5 | Over · 55% | ★★★ | 5+ targets in each of his last 5 games | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Receiving yards, 99.5 | Under · 51% | ★ | Bears allowed Over to a WR in 2 of 7 |
The top five rows are this game’s 4- and 5-star insights. The last two are lower-rated insights featured in Spot the Angle, shown so every quiz answer has its row.
Line source: Remarkable™ consensus line. Confidence is the Inside Edge confidence in the Over (Under = 100 minus Over). Caleb Williams’s season prop samples cover 4 games, while Chicago has played 7, so his season-level samples are small.
Line source: Remarkable™ consensus line. Sam Darnold’s season prop samples cover 6 games.
Methodology
How this is calculatedHow does Inside Edge decide which team "has the edge" on a given stat?
Each comparison in this report pairs one team’s strength with the opponent’s matching weakness, ranked among all 32 teams (or among qualified players where a player is named). Edges are ordered by the size of the rank gap and by how directly the two stats measure the same thing. Inside Edge does not publish a weighted "Strong Edge / Edge / Lean" score; that scoring system is in development.
Why does this page mostly use 2026 season data?
Current-season splits reflect this year’s rosters and schemes. Where a shorter window (the previous 4 weeks, "since Week 4") adds useful context, the row or data note says so.
How are prop insights and confidence calculated?
Each prop insight compares the posted line to the player’s recent and season results and to what the opposing defense has allowed. The confidence figure is Inside Edge’s confidence in the Over on a 0 to 100 scale; the star rating reflects how far that figure sits from 50. Every insight is graded against the final box score on a weekly results page.
What’s the data source and refresh schedule?
Team, player and matchup statistics come from Remarkable™, Inside Edge’s proprietary sports data engine, using Sportradar and FTN Data feeds. The game line comes from Inside Edge game data. Game pages refresh on a weekly cadence during the season.
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Frequently Asked Questions
5 questionsWhich team has the stronger statistical matchup profile?
Seattle holds the broader statistical edge: 25 of the game’s 44 Inside Edge Reasons favor the Seahawks, led by a passing offense facing a Chicago defense ranked last on first down and a Seattle defense ranked 2nd-best on 3rd and short. Chicago’s clearest counterweights are its pass rush and its first-quarter defense. This reflects statistical comparison, not a forecast of the outcome.
What is the market price for Bears at Seahawks?
The line has Seattle -3 with a total of 46.5 (Inside Edge game data, Oct 28, 2026). Prices may change before kickoff.
What is Chicago’s strongest counterargument?
Chicago pressures quarterbacks on 31% of dropbacks, 4th-best in the NFL, and Seattle has allowed pressure on 31%, 5th-worst. The Bears also have at least one sack in each of their last 14 games.
Who are the Blazing Performers for this game?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 5 or more receptions in each of his last 7 games and has topped 99.5 receiving yards in each of his last 3. D’Andre Swift has rushed for a touchdown in each of his last 3 games.
Are these betting picks or financial advice?
No. This page presents descriptive, sourced statistical analysis. It is not financial advice and does not guarantee any outcome. Market pricing is shown for context only.