Colts at Jaguars: Matchup Edges, Statistical Evidence and Market Context
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars·
NFL Week 8·
Kickoff Sun, Nov 1, 2026, 1:00 PM ET
Updated Oct 28, 2026, with Week 8 Reasons·
By Inside Edge Editorial·
Data through Week 7 of the 2026 season
46 of 54 Reasons favor Jacksonville. The biggest gap is the Jaguars’ defense against pressured quarterbacks, facing a Colts passing game that ranks last in the NFL under pressure. Indianapolis’s counters are real but concentrated near the goal line: its red-zone defense has been among the league’s stingiest since Week 4. Inside Edge game data has Jacksonville as a 9.5-point home favorite. Both sides are shown below with sample, ranking and source context.
Inside Edge’s Week 8 view: Jacksonville comes off its Week 7 bye with the stronger statistical profile: 46 of the game’s 54 Reasons favor the Jaguars, led by a pass defense that has allowed an 18.9 passer rating to pressured quarterbacks and a run game that averages 4.8 yards per carry up the middle against a Colts defense that allows the same, T-2nd-worst. Indianapolis’s clearest counterarguments come in the red zone, where it hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 4. The line has Jacksonville -9.5 with a total of 46.5, shown later in this report as market context, not an Inside Edge forecast.
| Matchup | Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars |
| Competition | NFL, Week 8 |
| Kickoff | Sun, Nov 1, 2026, 1:00 PM ET |
| Line | Jacksonville -9.5 · Total 46.5 |
| Analysis status | Pregame; subject to change |
| Data through | Week 7, 2026 NFL regular season (Jacksonville had a Week 7 bye) |
What Stood Out Last Week
Week 7
- The pass rush got home: Indianapolis pressured the quarterback on 29% of pass attempts, 4th-best in the NFL in Week 7, and sacked him on 11% (3 of 27), 3rd-best.
- Colts running backs averaged 3.7 yards before contact per carry on 29 carries, tied for 3rd-best in the league.
- The run defense tackled cleanly, allowing 0.7 yards after contact per carry on 27 carries, 3rd-best.
- Daniel Jones averaged 4.9 yards per attempt (108 yards on 22 attempts), worst of 28 qualified QBs, and was sacked on 15% of his pass attempts (4 of 26), 2nd-worst.
- The run defense has allowed 436 rushing yards this season, fewest in the NFL, and only 7 runs of 10+ yards on 131 carries (5%), 2nd-best.
- Trevor Lawrence has 14 touchdown passes this season, tied for 4th-most, on just 120 completions, the best completions-per-TD rate of 36 qualified QBs.
- Jacksonville has scored on 61% of its 3rd-quarter drives this season (8 of 13), best in the NFL.
- Wide receivers have found room this season: the defense has allowed 216.0 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs, worst in the NFL, and 76% of the first downs it has allowed came through the air, highest.
Spot the Angle
Real Remarkable™ insights on Colts at Jaguars. Pick an answer to reveal the betting spin.
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Favorable Matchup
Question 1 of 5
Indianapolis has allowed more than 61.5 rushing yards to an opposing running back in each of its last 3 games. Which back has a 61.5-yard rushing line this week and has cleared it in 5 of 6 games this season?
He’s averaging 64.7 rushing yards per game this season.
The betting spin
Answer: Bhayshul Tuten. He’s cleared 61.5 in 4 of his last 5 games, and the Colts have allowed more than 61.5 to a back in 5 of 7 games this season. Inside Edge’s insight leans Over at 58%.
See the prop angles ↓ -
Key Insight
Question 2 of 5
Jacksonville has allowed an 18.9 passer rating to pressured quarterbacks this season, 3rd-best in the NFL. What is the Colts’ passer rating when their QB is under pressure?
It ranks worst in the NFL.
The betting spin
Answer: 13.0, worst in the NFL. It’s the largest rank gap of the game’s 54 Reasons, and Indianapolis allowed pressure on 36% of pass attempts in Week 7, the worst rate in the league that week.
See the edge ↓ -
Hot Streak
Question 3 of 5
Tyler Warren has been targeted 6 or more times in every game he’s played this season, and his receptions line is 4.5. How many catches per game is he averaging over his last 3 games?
It’s a full catch above his season average of 6.0.
The betting spin
Answer: 7.0. Warren has cleared 4.5 receptions in 3 of his 5 games, and Inside Edge’s insight leans Over at 57%. Small sample: he has played 5 of Indianapolis’s 7 games.
See the prop angles ↓ -
Matchup Watch
Question 4 of 5
The Colts have allowed just 1 rushing touchdown since Week 4, and none in the red zone. How many rushing touchdowns has Jacksonville scored over that span?
It’s tied for fewest in the NFL.
The betting spin
Answer: 1, tied for fewest. It’s Indianapolis’s best counter. Jacksonville has run for 100+ yards in each of its last 4 games, but the Colts haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown in their last 38 defensive drives.
See the edge ↓ -
Player Prop
Question 5 of 5
Which running back has a carries line of 6.5 this week and has topped it in just 2 of 6 games this season?
He’s averaging 31.7 rushing yards per game over his last 3 games.
The betting spin
Answer: Chris Rodriguez. He’s gone over 6.5 carries in only 2 of 6 games, and Inside Edge’s insight leans Under at 56%. He has been efficient when used, though: 31.7 rushing yards per game over his last 3.
See the prop angles ↓
Key Findings
At a glance| Topic | Indianapolis | Jacksonville | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing under pressure | 13.0 rating, worst | 18.9 allowed, 3rd-best | Jacksonville |
| Runs up the middle | 4.8 YPC allowed, T-2nd-worst | 4.8 YPC, 4th-best | Jacksonville |
| Passing vs. tight coverage | 53.5 rating allowed, 6th-worst | 66.8 rating, 3rd-best | Jacksonville |
| Red-zone rushing TDs (since Week 4) | 0 allowed, T-fewest | 0 scored, T-fewest | Indianapolis |
| Red-zone points per game (since Week 4) | 10.8 allowed, 3rd-best | 12.0 scored, 6th-worst | Indianapolis |
| Passing vs. a stacked front | 42% success allowed, 7th-best | 38% success, T-4th-worst | Indianapolis |
Rows use 2026 regular-season data through Week 7 unless marked "since Week 4" (the most recent four weeks of games). Rankings are among all 32 NFL teams. Of the 54 Inside Edge Reasons generated for this game, 46 favor Jacksonville and 8 favor Indianapolis. Jacksonville has played 6 games and Indianapolis 7.
Where Jacksonville Has the Edge
3 verified pairsThe Colts’ passing game has been the NFL’s worst under pressure, and Jacksonville finishes those plays
JAXThe Jaguars have allowed an 18.9 passer rating when the opposing quarterback is under pressure this season.
INDColts quarterbacks have a 13.0 passer rating when under pressure this season.
Jacksonville: 3rd-best in the NFL · Indianapolis: worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is the largest rank gap among the game’s Reasons. It showed up again in Week 7, when the Colts allowed pressure on 36% of pass attempts, the worst rate in the NFL that week, and Daniel Jones was sacked on 15% of his attempts. Jacksonville has also pressured quarterbacks on 39% of play-action passes this season, 4th-best.
Jacksonville has allowed an 18.9 passer rating to pressured quarterbacks in 2026, 3rd-best in the NFL, while Indianapolis’s quarterbacks have a 13.0 rating under pressure, worst in the league.
Data note
Both sides measure passer rating on pressured dropbacks. 2026 regular season through Week 7. Week 7 pressure and sack figures come from Remarkable™ Last Week notes. Source: Inside Edge Week 8 Reasons (Remarkable™, Sportradar and FTN data).
Jacksonville’s inside run game meets one of the league’s softest middles
JAXThe Jaguars are averaging 4.8 yards per carry on runs up the middle this season.
INDThe Colts have allowed 4.8 yards per carry on runs up the middle this season.
Jacksonville: 4th-best in the NFL · Indianapolis: T-2nd-worst.
Why it matters: The supporting numbers point the same way. Jaguars running backs average 2.4 yards after contact per carry (4th-best), and the Colts allow 2.2 to backs (4th-worst). Indianapolis has allowed 5.0 yards per carry overall (T-4th-worst), and Jacksonville has run for 100+ yards in each of its last 4 games.
Jacksonville averages 4.8 yards per carry on runs up the middle in 2026, 4th-best in the NFL, and Indianapolis has allowed 4.8 on those runs, tied for 2nd-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure yards per carry on runs charted up the middle; Jacksonville’s figure covers its running backs. 2026 regular season through Week 7. The 100-yard streak comes from a Remarkable™ streak note. Source: Inside Edge Week 8 Reasons (Remarkable™, Sportradar data).
Trevor Lawrence’s offense has been completing passes into tight windows
JAXJaguars quarterbacks have a 66.8 passer rating against tight coverage this season.
INDThe Colts have allowed a 53.5 passer rating with tight coverage this season.
Jacksonville: 3rd-best in the NFL · Indianapolis: 6th-worst.
Why it matters: Even when Indianapolis covers well, Jacksonville has produced. Against a light front, Jaguars quarterbacks have a 136.0 rating, best in the NFL, versus 92.5 allowed by the Colts (10th-worst). Overall, Jacksonville’s QBs rate 106.3 (5th-best) against a Colts defense allowing 97.4 (10th-worst).
Jacksonville’s quarterbacks have a 66.8 passer rating against tight coverage in 2026, 3rd-best in the NFL, while Indianapolis has allowed a 53.5 rating in tight coverage, 6th-worst.
Data note
"Tight coverage" is charted by FTN Data. Both sides measure passer rating on throws into tight coverage. 2026 regular season through Week 7. Source: Inside Edge Week 8 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN data).
Where Indianapolis Has the Edge
3 verified pairsThe Colts have shut down red-zone runs, and Jacksonville hasn’t scored on them
INDThe Colts have not allowed a rushing touchdown in the red zone since Week 4.
JAXThe Jaguars have not scored a rushing touchdown in the red zone since Week 4.
Indianapolis: T-fewest allowed in the NFL · Jacksonville: T-fewest scored.
Why it matters: This is Indianapolis’s largest edge. Over the same span the Colts have allowed 1 rushing touchdown in total (T-2nd-fewest), Jacksonville has scored 1 (T-fewest), and the Colts haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown in their last 38 defensive drives. Jacksonville’s 100-yard rushing streak hasn’t turned into red-zone touchdowns on the ground.
Since Week 4, Indianapolis has not allowed a red-zone rushing touchdown, tied for fewest in the NFL, and Jacksonville has not scored one, also tied for fewest.
Data note
"Since Week 4" is the most recent four-week window; Jacksonville’s bye falls inside it, so its sample is smaller. No 2026 full-season Reason measured this. The 38-drive streak comes from a Remarkable™ streak note. Source: Inside Edge Week 8 Reasons (Remarkable™, Sportradar data).
Indianapolis has tightened up inside its own 20
INDThe Colts have allowed 10.8 red-zone points per game since Week 4.
JAXThe Jaguars have scored 12.0 red-zone points per game since Week 4.
Indianapolis: 3rd-best in the NFL · Jacksonville: 6th-worst.
Why it matters: The Colts have allowed only 4 red-zone touchdowns since Week 4 (T-3rd-fewest), and Jacksonville has scored 4 (T-5th-fewest), at 3.3 points per red-zone drive (4th-worst). If Indianapolis keeps forcing field goals, it can keep a game closer than the yardage suggests.
Since Week 4, Indianapolis has allowed 10.8 red-zone points per game, 3rd-best in the NFL, while Jacksonville has scored 12.0 red-zone points per game, 6th-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure red-zone points per game over the most recent four-week window. This is a recent-form figure, not a full-season one. Source: Inside Edge Week 8 Reasons (Remarkable™, Sportradar data).
When the Colts load the box, Jacksonville’s passing has struggled
INDThe Colts have allowed a 42% success rate on pass attempts with a stacked front this season.
JAXThe Jaguars have been successful on 38% of pass attempts against a stacked front this season.
Indianapolis: 7th-best in the NFL · Jacksonville: T-4th-worst.
Why it matters: It is Indianapolis’s only full-season edge among the Reasons, and it gives the Colts a defensive blueprint: crowd the line against the run and dare Jacksonville to throw. The Colts have also held opponents under 300 passing yards in each of their last 5 games.
Indianapolis has allowed a 42% success rate on passes against a stacked front in 2026, 7th-best in the NFL, while Jacksonville has been successful on 38% of those passes, tied for 4th-worst.
Data note
A "stacked front" puts extra defenders near the line, as charted by FTN Data. Both sides measure pass success rate against that front. 2026 regular season through Week 7. The passing-yards streak comes from a Remarkable™ streak note. Source: Inside Edge Week 8 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN data).
Blazing Performers
1 per teamWho’s hottest heading into Sunday, per Remarkable™. Read the clue, guess, then tap to reveal.
IndianapolisThis running back has 10+ fantasy points in each of his last 7 games, every game of the Colts’ season.
JacksonvilleThis running back has 10+ fantasy points in each of his last 5 games and leads all qualified NFL backs in yards per target.
Blazing Performers presented by LineTerminal.
Market Context
External, secondaryThe line has Jacksonville as a 9.5-point home favorite with a game total of 46.5. Line history for earlier in the week wasn’t available when this page was built, so no line movement is shown. These are displayed as external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast.
The Reasons count points the same direction as the price, 46 to 8 in Jacksonville’s favor. Indianapolis’s red-zone defense is one statistical factor that cuts against a lopsided score; Inside Edge does not state that any line is mispriced.
Not financial or betting advice. Inside Edge does not set, accept or influence sportsbook prices. Wager only through licensed, regulated platforms in your jurisdiction. Line source: Inside Edge game data, Oct 28, 2026.
Player Prop Angles
9 insights| Player | Market | Insight lean | Rating | Key trend | Save |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | Passing yards, 186.5 | Over · 64% | ★★★★★ | Jaguars allowed Over in all 6 games | |
| Trevor Lawrence | Passing yards, 245.5 | Under · 64% | ★★★★★ | Colts allowed Over in 0 of last 5 | |
| Brenton Strange | Receptions, 3.5 | Over · 63% | ★★★★★ | 6.3 catches per game, last 3 | |
| Daniel Jones | Rushing yards, 8.5 | Under · 59% | ★★★★★ | Over in just 3 of 7 games | |
| Trevor Lawrence | Passing TDs, 1.5 | Over · 59% | ★★★★★ | Over in 4 of 6 games | |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Rushing yards, 61.5 | Over · 58% | ★★★★★ | Over in 5 of 6 games this season | |
| Daniel Jones | Completions, 19.5 | Over · 58% | ★★★★★ | Jaguars allow 28.0 per game, last 3 | |
| Tyler Warren | Receptions, 4.5 | Over · 57% | ★★★★ | 6+ targets in all 5 of his games | |
| Chris Rodriguez | Carries, 6.5 | Under · 56% | ★★★★ | Over 6.5 in just 2 of 6 games |
Line source: Remarkable™ consensus line. Confidence is the Inside Edge confidence in the Over (Under = 100 minus Over). Sample: 2026 regular season and last 3/5 games played.
Line source: Remarkable™ consensus line. Jacksonville has played 6 games (Week 7 bye), and Tyler Warren has played 5 of Indianapolis’s 7, so their season samples are small.
Methodology
How this is calculatedHow does Inside Edge decide which team "has the edge" on a given stat?
Each comparison in this report pairs one team’s strength with the opponent’s matching weakness, ranked among all 32 teams (or among qualified players where a player is named). Edges are ordered by the size of the rank gap and by how directly the two stats measure the same thing. Inside Edge does not publish a weighted "Strong Edge / Edge / Lean" score; that scoring system is in development.
Why does this page mostly use 2026 season data?
Current-season splits reflect this year’s rosters and schemes. Where a recent-form figure ("since Week 4") is the only measure available, the data note says so.
How are prop insights and confidence calculated?
Each prop insight compares the posted line to the player’s recent and season results and to what the opposing defense has allowed. The confidence figure is Inside Edge’s confidence in the Over on a 0 to 100 scale; the star rating reflects how far that figure sits from 50. Every insight is graded against the final box score on a weekly results page.
What’s the data source and refresh schedule?
Team, player and matchup statistics come from Remarkable™, Inside Edge’s proprietary sports data engine, using Sportradar and FTN Data feeds. Market prices come from third-party sportsbook listings. Game pages refresh on a weekly cadence during the season.
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Frequently Asked Questions
5 questionsWhich team has the stronger statistical matchup profile?
Jacksonville holds the broader statistical edge: 46 of the game’s 54 Inside Edge Reasons favor the Jaguars, led by a defense that has allowed an 18.9 passer rating to pressured quarterbacks against a Colts passing game rated worst in the NFL under pressure. Indianapolis’s clearest counterweights are in the red zone. This reflects statistical comparison, not a forecast of the outcome.
What is the market price for Colts at Jaguars?
Inside Edge game data lists Jacksonville -9.5 with a total of 46.5 as of Oct 28, 2026. Prices may change before kickoff.
What is Indianapolis’s strongest counterargument?
Red-zone defense. Since Week 4, the Colts haven’t allowed a red-zone rushing touchdown (tied for fewest in the NFL) and have allowed 10.8 red-zone points per game (3rd-best), while Jacksonville has scored 12.0 (6th-worst).
Who are the Blazing Performers for this game?
Jonathan Taylor has 10+ fantasy points in each of his last 7 games. Bhayshul Tuten has 10+ fantasy points in each of his last 5 games and leads qualified NFL running backs at 9.0 yards per target.
Are these betting picks or financial advice?
No. This page presents descriptive, sourced statistical analysis. It is not financial advice and does not guarantee any outcome. Market pricing is shown for context only.